Are Trans Women More Likely To Be Sex Offenders?
Analyzing the evidence - and provisionally answering 'yes'.
Today, I’m going to ask a question: “Are trans women more likely to be sex offenders?”. Then of course, instead of immediately calling myself a hateful bigot, I’m going to go out and find the answer through some research, like a normal human being. Hopefully the results are enlightening! 1
Firstly, the best way to determine this - and the easiest - is to look at how many transgender women - or as I’ll call them in this article, male to female identifying men, are in prison for committing sex offenses. The data is there, so it’s easier to take a look. Statistics on registered sex offenders are in fact pretty lacking - it’s hard to find even a consensus on the number of registered sex offenders there are, let alone any kind of gender identity demographic information. The Williams Institute published a survey on the matter of registered sex offenders, but unfortunately it is a convenience sample and was unable to recruit those barred from using a computer, among other issues - its worth when trying to assess demographics is nil.
Thus, I decided to answer the question by asking “Are trans women more likely to be imprisoned for sexual offending?”.
I quickly got a start to answering that question, thanks to a Freedom of Information Act request by Keep Prisons Single Sex, we can see that in the federal prison system, 47.62% of prisoners identifying as male-to-female are sex offenders. If compare this with men who don’t identify as male-to-female, the rate is 12.9%, according to BOP statistics. Of note is that 486 male to female identifying men in federal prison were classified as ‘high security’. It actually reveals a fairly unique offender profile - most inmates in federal prison are there for drug or weapon offenses, not sex offenses.
There are, again 1,346 male-to-female identifying men in federal prison. 47.62% are in federal prison for sex offenses. This means that there are 641 sex offenders identifying as male-to-female in the federal prison system. According to the Bureau of Prisons, there are 18,886 sex offenders in total in the federal prison system (this system does not disaggregate on sex, but the vast, vast majority of sex offenders are biologically male, including in the federal system - 93.6%, in fact.). This is not out-of-kilter internationally - up to half of male-to-female identifying men in the U.K are sex offenders, reported by multiple sources, including campaign group Fair Play For Women.
I’m assuming that the definition of ‘sex offenders’ here includes all sex offenses: there is a separate category, called ‘sexual abuse’ which is reserved for violent sex offenses and exclude sex offenses such as possession of child sexual abuse material.
This means that of those 18,886 sex offenders, 3.394% are men identifying as male-to-female.
Now, you might not think 3.394% is very much. Pew Research estimates that 1.6% of the U.S population identifies as transgender or nonbinary. You would reasonably expect, then their representation to be proportionate to their number in the population: given that 3.3% is double 1.6%, this suggests on its own that male-to-female identifying men are twice as likely to be federally imprisoned sex offenders. But the numbers get worse the more that you think about it. For example, Pew Research estimates that 1.6% of the U.S population is transgender or non binary, but the non-profit William’s Institute estimates that that 1.4% of the U.S population is transgender, ergo, male to female identifying men are even more likely to be federally imprisoned sex offenders.
That same William’s Institute publication estimates that there are 515,200 male to female identifying men in the U.S. There are around 165.8 million men in the U.S.
Now, if we take that 93.6% proportion of sex offenders being male, and apply it to the 18,886 figure -which is some very rough math, as the types of sex offenses that land you in federal prison generally aren’t committed by women, so it’s unknown how many ‘women’ recorded in the federal system are actually men, we get a total of 17,677 male sex offenders in the Bureau of Prisons system. 0.0001071333333333333% of all men in the United States are sex offenders imprisoned in federal prison. 0.001% of all male to female identifying men are sex offenders imprisoned in federal prison - orders of magnitude larger. We can safely say that being a trans identified male means you are statistically far more likely to end up in federal prison for sex offenses. It doesn’t mean they are all sex offenders - it just means it’s more likely that male to female identifying men are going to be federally incarcerated sex offenders than any other demographic in the United States.
There are a total of 144,459 inmates in the Bureau of Prisons system. With 18,886 sex offenders, 12.9% of all prisoners are in federal prison for sexual offending - as opposed to 47.62% of all male to female identifying inmates. The vast majority of sex offenders in federal prison are white. RAINN, a rape crisis organization, estimated in 2013 that there were around 161,000 state inmates incarcerated for sex offenses - around 12% of all state inmates - which roughly coincides with the numbers from federal prisons.
Now if we look at state statistics of male to female identifying men in prison, things get a bit thinner on the ground. A public records request by the Heritage Foundation showed that 81 out of 161 male to female identifying men in Wisconsin prisons had been convicted of at least one count of sexual assault or abuse. That matches the rate in both the federal system and in the United Kingdom. While I was able to find numbers for transgender prisoners, finding the demographics for offenses was much harder, and I was only able to find the results for Wisconsin when I started looking at recent demographic data for the states. There is some information for Canada - which found that 44% of male to female identifying men had a history of sex offending, which is consistent with the demographics of the other four prison systems. I am going to hedge my bets and guess that most other Western prison systems probably have similar offense profiles for male to female identifying men.
Now, before you mention it, or it gets mentioned in the comments - there is a demographic assessment of male to female identifying men in men’s prisons in California that also showed a higher rate of sexual offending - with 20.5% of those inmates reporting they were on the sex offender registry (68 out of 293 inmates), but this demographic study was done in 2009, before the Great Autogynephilication of transsexual issues. For example, 94% of those inmates reported being sexually attracted to men, 82% of them solely. The numbers of prisoners identifying as transgender has absolutely skyrocketed since 2009, and therefore, the demographic has changed - far more of those who identify as transgender these days are attracted to the opposite sex. The study is also fifteen years old - I know, 2009 doesn’t feel that long ago, but unfortunately it is. Therefore, I am going to note that it exists, but I am also not going to include it in the data I am going to use when I start to extrapolate on the information I have to draw a conclusion.
What else do we know? Based on data from 45 states and DC, NBC estimated in 2020 there are around are 4,890 transgender prisoners living in state prisons. This gives us an estimate of 6,236 male to female identifying men currently in prison right now in the US.
So, without further ado, with all of this data, we can make a few extrapolations on the back of a napkin - I’ve made this a bullet point list so it’s easy to follow along:
There are 6,236 male-to-female identifying prisoners in the US.
The Department of Justice reports there are 1,230,100 persons in U.S prisons.
There are 1,142,300 men in prison. 0.69% of all men in the US are in the prison system.
Prisoners make up 0.5% of the population of men that identify as male to female.
But, with the 6,236 male-to-female identifying prisoners in the US, assuming the Williams Institute figure is correct, this means 1,210 per 100,000 male-to-female identifying men are incarcerated.
To put that into perspective, the Sentencing Project states that 355 per 100,000 adults are imprisoned in the US.
Using the above figures from the Sentencing Project, around 745 men per 100,000 are incarcerated for any offense.
The Sentencing Project estimates that 49 out of every 100,000 women are in prison.
Based on that, a man is 15.2 times more likely per 100,000 to be in prison than a woman.
A male-to-female identifying man is 1.6 times more likely to be incarcerated for any offense than any other sort of man, 3.41 times more likely than the general population and 24.7 times more likely than a woman.
Around 12-13% of all prisoners are in for a sexual offense. Taking the middle figure - 12.5%, and accounting for the minuscule portion of women, we get around 143,921 men in prison for sexual offenses.
Around 87 per 100,000 men are currently incarcerated for a sexual offense in the U.S.
If we go by the statistics above and data from multiple states and even different countries, which consistently show that roughly half of male to female identifying men are incarcerated for sex offenses:
This means that around 3,118 of male to female identifying men are incarcerated for sex offenses across the United States, simply roughly dividing them in half.2
605 per 100,000 ‘trans women' are currently serving a prison sentence for a sex offense, and thus:
A male-to-female identifying man is seven times more likely to be incarcerated right now for a sexual offense than any other biological male.
There are around 17,848 women in prison for sex offenses in the U.S, by this rough math3.
There are 168.6 million women in the U.S.
10 per 100,000 of women are currently incarcerated sex offenders.
A male-to-female identifying man is sixty times more likely to be incarcerated right now for a sexual offense than a biological female.
In fact, the ratio for MTF-men:men is similar to the ratio of men:women. Male to female identifying men are the men of male sex offenders.
But they’re just like regular women, right?
What we get from this information overload, is that male-to-female identifying prisoners are far, far, far more likely to be in prison for sexual offending and not by a little, but by orders of magnitude and disproportionately so compared to every other demographic. The answer to the question ‘Are Trans Women More Likely to Be Sex Offenders?’ is a resounding yet rather provisional ‘yes’, based purely on published population statistics of incarcerated offenders. I’d love a real study, instead of me doing the math on the back of a virtual napkin, but there you go.
It’s an unpleasant statistic, but reality is unpleasant. Yes, I am saying that ‘transgender women are more likely to be sex offenders’. It’s not transphobic, it’s simply the truth, and you don’t go to federal prison for public urination, either.
There are problems with this analysis: information on this topic is extremely difficult to find, and I am not a statistician, I am taking what I can get from the Internet and working out rough estimates from there. This is not the authoritative, alpha-and-omega, be all and end all on this topic. It is a start. It is an illustration of how bad the problem may be. Please do not cite me in an academic journal. I am just an anonymous blogger.
It would be great to have better data - and better sources. Firstly, there’s no reason to not disaggregate the data that does exist on the basis of gender identity and sex. I can see the sex ratio of crimes, but why not the gender identity ratio? Further disaggregating the data based on whether these male to female identifying offenders are primarily attracted to the same or opposite sex to them would give us even further illumination, because then we can see how Blanchard’s transsexualism typology plays out in terms of criminal offenses. It’s not that disaggregating the data is inherently transphobic, either - it simply acknowledges that male to female identifying men are a distinct demographic, made up of distinct demographics. There’s no reason for even the wokest government not to do it - unless they’re hiding something. We could even look into the fact that the government is encouraging and providing the ability for a demographic of sex offenders to chemically and surgically castrate themselves. Truly, the future is past.
Many state governments are incredibly hesitant to provide any information on the topic - for a start, it’s not particularly politically correct. The ACLU sued a woman in California who made a FOIA request on the issue. The image of the dainty man so gay he identifies as a woman that has been imprisoned for prostitution or drug offenses is not the reality when it comes to male to female identifying male prisoners. The reality is nearly half, if not half of them are male sex offenders. It undermines any moral standing for any sort of argument that any of these men should even get to see a photo of a woman’s prison, let alone reside in one.
I note that Women’s Declaration USA have a prison Freedom Of Information Act project - a question missing, of course, is how many of these men are sex offenders. I think that’s a question gender critical women across the world should be asking, like our sisters in the U.K did. Knowing the ‘why’ stops proponents of putting male rapists into female prisons from insisting that the aforementioned male rapists are all delicate, dainty, and oppressed flowers, rather than the predators they are.
Instead, the powers that be would rather stick their fingers in their ears and pretend that it isn’t happening, while quite literally putting male rapists into women’s prisons. Now that’s cruel and unusual punishment.
You might ask - what about female-to-male identifying women? Firstly, there’s scant data. The Bureau of Prisons data does, however, show, that female-to-male identifying women don’t have sexual offending statistics too different from the rest of the female population. So the answer for them, I am provisionally saying, is ‘no’.
In a way, this also accounts for the number who are probably ‘legally female’, too.
Taking the 12.5% number - 143,921, and then accounting for the percentage of men sentenced for sex offenses -93.6%, we get 17,848 women in U.S prisons for sex offenses.
Corrections Canada report on gender diverse prisoners also confirms men who self id was women are more likely to be sex criminals than regular men.
The very NANOsecond a tranny puts his mother’s/sister’s/cousin’s/friend’s underwear on, he’s a fucking degenerate pervert. It’s merely a stagger in his oversized heels to sex offending.